| Zusammenfassung: | Using administrative data, we calculate different scenarios of future use and supply of psychiatrists’ services in Austria until 2030. Demand for services is derived from utilization data and calculated separately for hospital and non-hospital services. Supply projections are based on a stock and flow model. Outflows are based on past activity patterns and current legislation on retirement. To model inflows we account for the effects of recently introduced entrance barriers into medical education. Scenarios take several factors into account, like the shifting sex composition of the medical workforce, re-migration of foreign students, and the impact of entrance barriers on enrolment and drop-out rates. Depending on scenario assumptions, demand for psychiatrists will increase by 19% to 52%. But in all supply scenarios, supply will decline from 2016 onwards, thus widening gaps between supply and demand. Even in the most optimistic scenario combination, demand will exceed supply from 2023 onwards. (author's abstract)
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