On Mean Reversion in Real Interest Rates: An Application of Threshold Cointegtation
Abstract: Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis. T...| Link(s) zu Dokument(en): | IHS Publikation |
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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
| Format: | IHS Series NonPeerReviewed |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Institut für Höhere Studien
2002
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| Zusammenfassung: | Abstract: Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis. Threshold cointegration accounts for the possibility that this mean reversion is active only conditional on certain threshold values in the observed variables. We investigate whether findings of such effects can be exploited for interest rate prediction.; |
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