Extracting Risk-Neutral Probability Distributions from Option Prices Using Trading Volume as a Filter
Abstract: This paper introduces a new technique to infer the risk-neutral probability distribution of an asset from the prices of options on this asset. The technique is based on using the trading volume of each option as a proxy of the informativeness of the option. Not requiring the implied probab...| Link(s) zu Dokument(en): | IHS Publikation |
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| Format: | IHS Series NonPeerReviewed |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Institut für Höhere Studien
2001
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| Zusammenfassung: | Abstract: This paper introduces a new technique to infer the risk-neutral probability distribution of an asset from the prices of options on this asset. The technique is based on using the trading volume of each option as a proxy of the informativeness of the option. Not requiring the implied probability distribution to recover exactly the market prices of the options allows us to weight each option by a function of its trading volume. As a result, we obtain implied probability distributions that are both smoother and should be more reflective of fundamentals.; |
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