| Zusammenfassung: | A major objective of this study is to analyse the evolutionary patterns of regional linkages and disparities across the EU space, especially those related to rural and peripheral or remote regions. In particular, this report assesses the economy-wide effects, in terms of GDP and employment, induced at the European level, by the 2007-2011 CAP payments and by the possible future scenarios concerning the next programming period (2014-2020). A multiregional closed input-output approach applied at a NUTS-3 level is adopted. Particular attention focuses on the (re-)distributive effects produced by spatial and sectoral relationships. In defining regional policy, the knowledge of spillover effects is particularly strategic in that it can assist policy makers in better calibrating allocation of funds among regions and evaluating distribution of final policy effects more correctly. With reference to the next programming period, three main scenarios are analysed. Two are based on different and extreme shares of funds apportioned to basic payments. They are in turn divided into sub-scenarios based on three different criteria of regional distribution of funds devoted to basic payments: utilised agricultural area, agricultural value added and historical payments. A third scenario assumes the suppression of the actual framework based on two pillars and the transfer of all available funds to rural development policy. Results indicate that intersectoral and interregional linkages, which characterise the EU economic space, redirect a large part of effects, for any policy framework and scenario considered, from rural regions and from primary and secondary sectors (representing the main targets of policy) to urban and tertiary sectors, respectively. Moreover, they reveal that the best option for member countries in allocating basic payments among regions would be a criterion based on eligible hectares, which is the general principle on which the new CAP is based, since it would produce higher and more balanced distribution of effects among all regions. They also suggest that a total rethinking of the CAP by introducing only a single co-financed policy would lead to higher contribution to reduction in differences between rural and urban regions. Finally, the analysis shows that the policy decision taken for the 2014-2020 programming period to redistribute funds in favour of poorer regions not only is fair from an equity point of view but can also produce economic advantages for the regions directly penalised by a fund reallocation.
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